What can organisations still change in the final four weeks before COP31?

The final major ministerial meeting before COP31 took place in Fiji from 5 to 8 October. Leaders also met in Tuvalu, where the effects of sea-level rise are part of everyday public policy. The organisers report that the combined Pre-COP programme and associated events brought more than 4,000 participants from over 100 countries to the Pacific.

The central political document is the Taku Pakasoa Declaration, adopted on 6 October. It calls for strong action to keep the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal within reach, better access to climate finance, greater resilience and stronger protection of the ocean. It also supports the global commitment to move away from fossil fuels in energy systems, first agreed at COP28.

The declaration matters because Pacific leaders now have a common public statement to bring to Antalya. Their priorities reach directly into negotiations on emissions cuts, adaptation, finance and the recognition of oceans in climate decisions.

The division of responsibilities at COP31 gives the Pacific meeting added importance. Türkiye will preside over the conference, while Australia's Chris Bowen will lead the negotiations. Australia organised the Pre-COP with Fiji and Tuvalu. The Pacific agenda has therefore been presented directly to the people preparing the November talks.

There were also concrete proposals for the presidency's wider programme. Australia gave fresh support to Türkiye's 35-by-35 electrification target: raising electricity's share of global final energy use to 35% by 2035. Türkiye first announced the target in June and launched a related pledge in September. The development this week is Australia's endorsement and the effort to bring more governments behind it.

The Pre-COP closing account also sets out plans for an Antalya Ocean Declaration, a proposal to expand rooftop solar to at least 300 million households by 2030, and a focused, presidency-led political decision touching on electricity, finance, early warning systems, forests and oceans. The rooftop-solar pledge is expected to be formally launched at COP31. Details of the final texts and participating governments are still to be settled.

For negotiators, the next task is to bring these priorities into wording that countries will support. Pacific governments are seeking a stronger result on finance and emissions, while the two COP31 leaders want a workable political outcome. The shape of the presidency-led decision will be one of the documents worth following closely before November.

Further reading: Taku Pakasoa Declaration · Pre-COP outcomes · COP31's electrification initiative, first announced in June.

The Pacific Resilience Facility received new support during Pre-COP. The official closing account records US$10 million from Fiji, US$2.3 million from Denmark and US$1.1 million from Solomon Islands, alongside a £10 million UK contribution towards the next phase. Ireland signalled its intention to increase a previous commitment. These are different announcements, made in different currencies and on different terms.

The Facility is governed by Pacific countries. Its model aims to use the earnings from invested capital to support small resilience projects. On 7 October, Reuters reported pledges of just under US$200 million, against an initial US$500 million target. That report preceded some of the closing announcements. The overall funding gap remains substantial. The Asian Development Bank’s president told Pre-COP that recent adaptation finance flows meet only 26% of projected annual Pacific needs. This gives another indication of the scale of the problem.

Australia announced additional support for energy work and coastal infrastructure, including an A$7.29 million energy-transition package and A$3 million for a programme combining natural coastal protection with infrastructure improvements. Those investments can support particular projects. They sit alongside a larger argument about how climate funding is organised.

Pre-COP also produced an Access to Finance Statement and Action Plan. An Australian closing account estimates that more than US$16 billion in climate finance has been committed to Pacific countries since the Paris Agreement, with more than US$5 billion still undisbursed. These totals describe commitments reported by organisers. They do not explain the circumstances of every delayed project.

The Cook Islands Prime Minister, Mark Brown, made the discussion unusually specific in a speech delivered on 8 October. He asked fund providers to publish how long applications take, account for those still waiting, recognise assessments already completed by other institutions and offer funding suited to small island states spread across large distances. His proposal puts responsibility on the institutions making the decisions as well as on the countries applying.

There is a financial and administrative cost to repeated applications. Smaller governments have limited staff, and the same teams often handle national climate plans, project preparation, reporting and responses to funders. Clearer requirements and faster decisions would free up capacity for implementation.

This debate now has a practical set of measures. By COP31, fund providers can say whether they will publish decision times, simplify requirements and increase predictable grant support. Pacific countries can then assess progress against those commitments. The approach also speaks to problems faced by climate projects well beyond the region.

Further reading: Pre-COP financial announcements · Reuters on the Pacific Resilience Facility, 7 October · Asian Development Bank · Cook Islands Prime Minister's statement.

On 12 October, Reuters reported details of an internal European Union draft for COP31. The document calls for faster global emissions reductions and proposes extending the United Nations mitigation work programme until 2040. That programme brings countries together to discuss ways to accelerate the cuts needed this decade. Its continuation is among the questions awaiting decision at COP31.

The draft also gives attention to electrification and cooperation on clean energy. These priorities broadly overlap with the COP31 presidency's agenda. The EU is seeking to turn national climate targets into more practical action, building on the Paris Agreement and earlier COP decisions.

The finance discussion is likely to be harder. The draft described by Reuters does not include a fresh EU funding pledge. Developing countries are calling for greater, more accessible support, including adaptation finance and assistance with implementing their plans. The EU already provides climate finance, but the argument at COP31 will include its scale, terms and how it is shared among contributors.

The draft reflects a position still under discussion among EU countries. Climate ministers have yet to settle the bloc's mandate for Antalya. Any final document could change, so the next relevant development is the adopted EU position.

Two questions will then become easier to answer. How firmly will Europe back an extension of the mitigation work programme? And what will it support on finance when developing countries ask how faster emissions reductions are to be funded?

COP31's Türkiye–Australia leadership is also seeking a politically workable outcome. The EU's final position will help show how much room there is for agreement between greater mitigation ambition and financial support.

Further reading: Reuters, 12 October · UNFCCC COP31 documents and agenda.

On 8 October, nearly 150 civil society organisations issued an appeal for developed countries to bring stronger post-2025 climate-finance commitments to COP31. Published by Amnesty International, the statement links the financing obligations of wealthier countries to the needs of communities facing storms, heat, floods and other climate impacts.

The same day, Climate Action Network criticised the limited progress at Pre-COP. It called for stronger adaptation finance, a credible climate-finance work programme and progress on the Belém–Antalya mechanism for just transition.

Just transition covers the effects of the shift to lower-emission economies on workers, communities and regions that depend on existing industries. The mechanism was taken forward at COP30. Governments will now have to address how international cooperation and support should be organised, and how affected groups will take part.

For trade unions and civil society organisations, governance matters. A mechanism needs a workable way to involve workers and affected communities, connect national policies to support and report on its activities. Finance matters too: countries taking on new responsibilities need resources for skills, public services, alternative employment and local economic plans.

CAN's priorities are advocacy demands. The nearly 150 signatories' finance call is also a civil society initiative. Together, they show which decisions these organisations want governments to make in Antalya. Their requests can be compared with the final negotiated texts once COP31 begins.

The different groups are also speaking about two related problems. Adaptation finance concerns the resources needed to live with climate impacts that are already happening. Just transition concerns the social and economic consequences of changing how economies produce and use energy. Both discussions bring distribution, public services and the terms of international financial support into climate negotiations.

Further reading: Civil society finance call, 8 October · Climate Action Network, 8 October · Background on the Belém–Antalya mechanism.