Issue 04Coverage: 5–12 July 2026 | Prepared independently by SICI
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Opening note

Hello from Antalya.

We are following COP31 from the city that will host the summit in November. Before we begin, a small milestone: COP31Radar reached 1,000 WhatsApp followers with its third issue! Thank you to everyone reading, sharing and helping this independent briefing grow.

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This week, the agenda keeps moving on. Especially Belém Mission gives important insights. Wish you a great week and a strong climate action!

Executive brief

Overall picture

Decision brief

The Belém Mission to 1.5 is intended to examine how countries can implement their Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs—the national climate targets and policy packages submitted under the Paris Agreement—and their National Adaptation Plans, or NAPs, which organise longer-term preparation for climate impacts.

The COP30 decision launched the Mission under the guidance of the COP29, COP30 and COP31 presidencies. Its formal output is a report to be completed in the run-up to COP31, identifying barriers, opportunities and potential solutions for implementation, international cooperation and investment. ()

The initial call for written inputs, which closed this week, shows that “implementation” is not yet a shared operating model. Investors emphasise stable regulation, project preparation and financing strategies. The EU wants stronger links to formal UNFCCC processes. Civil society groups argue that implementation without fossil-fuel phase-out, grant-based finance, rights and public accountability may simply make existing climate plans more investable without making them more equitable—or sufficient.

COP31 may therefore be judged not by how often it uses the language of delivery, but by whether it connects plans to institutions, finance and measurable political responsibility.

The question remains towards COP31:

Who will decide?

Editorial illustration showing climate negotiations, protest, business interests and climate justice.
“Implementation is a good word, unless there is action for it. Action is good, unless there is implementation of it.”
MAIN SIGNALS TO WATCH

Signals

Click signals to expand
01The Belém Mission’s initial written-submission period closed with inputs from governments, investors, companies and civil society+
The Belém Mission’s initial written-submission period closed with inputs from governments, investors, companies and civil society. ()
02Investors want quantified finance needs, stable regulation and clearer pipelines of investable projects+
Investors want quantified finance needs, stable regulation and clearer pipelines of investable projects.
03Civil society submissions demand fossil-fuel phase-out plans, grant finance and stronger accountability+
Civil society submissions demand fossil-fuel phase-out plans, grant finance and stronger accountability. ()
This week’s briefing

Implementation needs a system

01What the Belém Mission actually does
Briefing 01 · Belém Mission

What the Belém Mission actually does

The Belém Mission to 1.5 emerged from COP30’s effort to move the Paris Agreement process from repeated target-setting towards implementation. It is being stewarded jointly by Türkiye, Australia, Brazil and Azerbaijan through the COP29–COP31 presidency sequence.
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Its task is deliberately broad: identify the most important barriers and opportunities affecting the implementation of NDCs and NAPs, examine international cooperation and investment, and produce a report ahead of COP31. The submission process invited contributions at global, national, regional and local levels from governments and non-governmental actors. As of 12 July, the public register included ten submissions from Parties or Party groups and a much larger set from investors, companies, research institutions and civil society organisations. ()

This is not another round of countries submitting climate targets. It is an attempt to understand why existing plans fail to become funded policies, infrastructure programmes, regulations and locally delivered adaptation.

That distinction matters. A country may have an NDC, but still lack sector-specific roadmaps, credible budgets, institutional responsibility or a pipeline of prepared projects. It may have a NAP, but no accessible finance for local authorities and communities expected to implement it.

The Mission can map those failures. Whether COP31 converts that diagnosis into political decisions is a separate question.

02Implementation means different things
Briefing 02 · Implementation models

Implementation means different things

Investor groups including AIGCC, IIGCC, PRI, CDP and UNEP FI argue that NDCs and NAPs should be tied more closely to national budgets, financing strategies and investment systems. They want quantified investment needs, clearer sector pathways and more predictable regulation, alongside guarantees, blended finance and other tools intended to improve project risk-return profiles.
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This is a practical response to a genuine problem: climate targets do not automatically create projects that ministries can procure or investors can finance.

The European Union places greater emphasis on institutional continuity. Its submission calls for the Mission’s findings to feed into existing UNFCCC workstreams, the second Global Stocktake and future NDC rounds. It also argues for a more regular space to discuss the collective mitigation and implementation gap rather than allowing the report to sit outside the formal process.

Civil society organisations add a different test. Greenpeace calls for national roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels as part of just-transition plans. A coalition of Brazilian environmental, climate justice and human-rights organisations calls for binding phase-out timelines, direct community access to finance and a shift away from debt-producing loans towards grant-based support. ()

These positions overlap, but they are not identical. Making a plan investable is not necessarily the same as making it Paris-aligned, socially just or politically accountable.

03A report is not a delivery system
Briefing 03 · Delivery system

A report is not a delivery system

The formal mandate of the Belém Mission is modest compared with the expectations now being placed on it.
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The COP30 decision asks the presidencies to reflect on implementation, cooperation and investment and to produce a report summarising their work. It does not itself establish a financing facility, implementation authority, compliance system or permanent governance mechanism. ()

That does not make the Mission irrelevant. A credible report could reveal where delivery is consistently failing: ministries working in isolation, weak project preparation, fragmented finance access, inadequate adaptation funding, uncertain regulation or poor links between national targets and public budgets.

But a diagnostic report only becomes consequential if it enters a decision chain.

The EU proposes linking it to formal UNFCCC workstreams and the next Global Stocktake. E3G, ECCO and Germanwatch argue that it should clarify the roles of overlapping implementation initiatives and recommend practical improvements in finance access, technical assistance and institutional coordination. They also warn against creating additional parallel structures in an already fragmented system.

For COP31, the credibility question is therefore not whether the report contains strong recommendations. It is whether someone is made responsible for acting on them, with timelines, resources and a way to track progress.

04Fossil fuels remain the credibility test
Briefing 04 · Credibility test

Fossil fuels remain the credibility test

Several submissions support grids, storage, electrification, renewable energy and investable clean infrastructure. These are essential parts of implementation—but their climate value depends on what they replace.
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E3G, ECCO and Germanwatch state this directly: electrification and clean-energy investment must concretely displace fossil fuels to fulfil their mitigation potential. They also note that many adaptation measures will continue to depend primarily on grants and highly concessional public finance because they cannot reliably generate commercial returns.

The Brazilian civil-society coalition goes further, calling for a halt to new fossil-fuel expansion, binding phase-out timelines and direct finance for communities. Its proposed Belém–Antalya Mechanism would attempt to connect fragmented cooperation, technical support and capacity-building efforts. This specific design remains a civil-society proposal, but it builds on COP30’s formal decision to develop a just transition mechanism whose detailed structure has not yet been agreed. ()

The political difficulty is already visible elsewhere. A draft position from the European People’s Party—the largest group in the European Parliament—proposes slowing future emissions reductions under the EU Emissions Trading System and extending free allowances for industry. It is not adopted EU policy, but it illustrates the pressure that appears when implementation begins to impose real costs on incumbent sectors. ()

COP31’s implementation narrative will remain incomplete unless it explains not only what will be built, but which high-emitting activities will decline as a result.

05Australia opens three national routes
Briefing 05 · National routes

Australia opens three national routes

Australia opened three separate COP31 participation routes this week: proposals for the Australian Pavilion programme, travel support for selected underrepresented participants, and applications for Australian Party Overflow badges.
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They should not be presented as general international COP31 access opportunities. The routes are primarily designed for Australian organisations, delegates and engagement objectives.

The travel programme closes on 27 July and provides eligible Australian organisations with grants of AUD 15,000–20,000 to support participation by First Nations Australians, young people and other underrepresented groups. Individuals cannot apply directly. ()

Australian Pavilion proposals close on 31 July. Acceptance offers programme visibility, but it is not equivalent to formal negotiation access. Party Overflow badges provide access to the Blue Zone and may allow attendance at sessions open to their badge category, subject to access and room-capacity restrictions, but they do not make recipients members of Australia’s official negotiating delegation or authorise them to speak for Australia. ()

The useful lesson beyond Australia is conceptual: travel funding, pavilion visibility, accreditation and negotiating authority are different resources. Organisations should identify which one they actually need before treating “COP participation” as a single objective.

Civil society

What civil society should watch?

Opportunity

The Belém Mission creates an opening to move implementation debates beyond project pipelines and towards public finance, rights, community access, just transition and fossil-fuel phase-out. Its report may also influence the political framing of COP31 and future NDC discussions.

Risk

Civil-society language may be cited as evidence of inclusion without its harder demands entering the final recommendations. Representation in consultations does not guarantee influence over the report—or over subsequent decisions.

Prepare

Identify two or three implementation failures that your organisation can document with evidence. Link them to a specific institutional, financial or regulatory remedy. For COP31 advocacy, distinguish between seeking visibility, influencing the Mission report and securing a formal negotiating outcome.

Companies / institutions

What companies should watch?

Opportunity

Organisations working on energy, infrastructure, finance, technology or adaptation now have a clearer indication of what credible implementation proposals may require: quantified needs, sector pathways, policy alignment, evidence of delivery capacity and realistic financing structures.

Risk

“Implementation” must not become a softer label for projects that add clean technologies without reducing fossil-fuel dependence or addressing social impacts. Political pressure to weaken regulation also makes unsupported transition claims more exposed.

Prepare

Test any COP31 initiative against four questions: What national or sector plan does it implement? What emissions or resilience outcome will it deliver? What finance and regulation does it require? What existing high-carbon activity or vulnerability will it actually replace or reduce?

Critical reading

COP31 is increasingly being presented as an implementation-focused summit. The Belém Mission submissions show why that positioning is attractive: the climate process contains targets, plans, initiatives and finance promises, but they do not yet function as a coherent delivery system.

The contradiction is that almost everyone supports implementation until the term requires choices.

Investors want policy certainty, prepared projects and improved risk-return conditions. Developing countries and civil-society organisations require more public and grant-based finance, technology access and institutional capacity. Climate justice actors demand fossil-fuel phase-out, direct community participation and stronger accountability. Governments must decide which activities receive support—and which must contract.

The current Mission mandate can organise these arguments and produce recommendations. It cannot, by itself, resolve them.

Before committing resources to any initiative presented as COP31 implementation, organisations should ask: What decision, budget, regulation or accountability mechanism will cause this proposal to be delivered after the summit?

Critical bottom line: A strong report may improve the debate. COP31 will still need a credible route from recommendation to responsibility.
COP31 basics and planning

Find the route

Sources

Used in this issue

  1. UNFCCC — Belém Mission to 1.5
  2. UNFCCC — Global Mutirão Decision
  3. Investor Groups — Submission to the Belém Mission
  4. European Union — Submission to the Belém Mission
  5. E3G, ECCO and Germanwatch — Belém Mission Submission
  6. Greenpeace — Belém Mission Submission
  7. Brazilian Civil-Society Coalition — Belém Mission Submission
  8. Australian Government — New COP31 Participation Routes
  9. Australian Government — COP31 Travel Support Program
  10. Australian Government — Party Overflow Badge Applications
  11. COP31 Türkiye — Official COP31 Platform
  12. Reuters — EPP Draft Seeks Changes to the EU ETS

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