What does the analysis examine?
Antalya will host COP31, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, from 9 to 20 November 2026. Just days before the conference, a tornado struck a construction site in Kepez on the night of 26 October, killing four workers.
Ahead of the conference, COP31Radar examined two decades of temperature trends and records of extreme weather events in Antalya. The data show that 2016–2025 was, on average, 0.82°C warmer than the preceding decade. The number of days with high temperatures recorded at the city’s meteorological stations is also increasing.
Historical records from Türkiye’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) point to an increase in recorded tornadoes and storms. In recent years, Antalya has registered Türkiye’s highest daily rainfall measurement. A review of records for ten fatal events confirmed that 28 people lost their lives.
By bringing together temperature measurements and disaster records from several institutions, this analysis examines the recent climate history of the city hosting COP31.
Some key findings from the analysis
The summer average at Antalya Airport station was above the 1991–2020 normal.
The city’s highest July temperature in 95 years was recorded.
Measured over 24 hours in Ovacık, Kemer, in 2018.
Antalya in the days before COP31
On the night of 26 October 2026, a tornado struck a construction site in Antalya’s Kepez district, tearing apart two containers housing workers. Four people died and one was injured. Following the incident, the contractor and site manager were remanded in custody as part of the investigation.
Just two weeks after the tornado, government representatives from around the world are due to gather in Antalya. The COP31 agenda includes limiting global temperature rise and measures to address the impacts of climate change.
Antalya’s records from the past two decades show why these discussions also matter to the host city. Recent years have brought exceptionally hot summers. Heavy rainfall has flooded residential areas, while tornadoes, major wildfires and storms have claimed lives.
It is not possible to attribute every one of these events directly to climate change. Long-term temperature increases, however, are clearly documented by scientific data. The city’s history of extreme weather events also warrants closer examination as these changes are debated.
How much have temperatures risen in Antalya?
A series of annual temperatures derived from ERA5-Land reanalysis data for Antalya shows that the second half of the past 20 years was noticeably warmer than the first.
The annual mean temperature was calculated at 14.26°C for 2006–2015 and 15.08°C for 2016–2025. The difference between the two decades is 0.82°C.
In the same series, 2024 ranks as the warmest year of the 1950–2025 period, with an average temperature of 16.09°C.
Measurements from the Antalya Airport meteorological station also show how hot the summer of 2024 was. Average temperatures reached 29.2°C in June, 31.1°C in July and 29.9°C in August. The three-month average was 30.1°C, approximately 2.1°C above the station’s 1991–2020 summer normal.
Long-term studies of meteorological stations also show an increase in the number of hot days. At Antalya Airport, the number of days on which the daily maximum temperature reaches or exceeds 30°C shows an upward trend of approximately 0.6 days per year; in Alanya, the trend is approximately 1.5 days per year.
Together, these findings paint a consistent picture of increasingly frequent high temperatures in Antalya.
Annual mean temperatures in Antalya
2006–2025 · °CSwipe horizontally to see all yearly values.
1991–2020 baseline vs summer 2024
In each summer month, temperatures in 2024 were above the long-term average.
What do the tornado and storm records show?
The Antalya Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Plan includes records of tornado events covering 2005–2020.
| Period | Recorded tornadoes |
|---|---|
| 2005–2010 | 15 |
| 2010–2015 | 54 |
| 2015–2020 | 76 |
The period totals published by AFAD indicate a marked increase in recorded tornado events.
Storm records show a similar pattern. According to another official study prepared for Antalya, 236 storm events were recorded between 1975 and 2020. The number rose particularly after 2003, reaching a peak of 28 recorded events in 2019.
Flood records also show a concentration of events in more recent years. In AFAD’s historical review spanning roughly 45 years, 55% of recorded floods occurred in the last ten years and 75% in the last twenty.
Changes in recording methods and settlement patterns need to be considered when interpreting these figures. Official studies of Antalya suggest that urbanisation and changes in surface runoff may also have contributed to the rise in recorded floods.
Tornadoes recorded in Antalya by AFAD
Türkiye’s daily rainfall record was set in Antalya
On 17 December 2018, the weather station in Ovacık, Kemer, recorded 490.8 millimetres of rainfall in 24 hours. According to the historical records of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), this is the highest daily rainfall total recorded in Türkiye.
On 13 February 2024, Kepez recorded 297.7 millimetres of rain in a single day. This was the highest daily rainfall measurement in Türkiye in 2024.
Flooding across Antalya that day affected numerous buildings and roads. One person lost their life after becoming trapped in a car in the flooded Gıyaseddin Keyhüsrev Underpass in Kepez.
These events show the serious consequences extreme rainfall can have for urban life. Local conditions and the state of infrastructure also shape the impact of flooding.
The human toll of extreme weather events
Extreme weather events in Antalya over the past 20 years have also resulted in loss of life.
In 2011, four bodies were recovered following flooding in Haskızılören village, Serik, while two people remained missing. In January 2019, tornadoes affecting Kumluca and Finike killed two people. During the same period, university student Kader Buse Acar went missing after a tornado swept away the car she was in near Kemer.
In July 2021, major wildfires that began in Manavgat and spread to neighbouring districts became one of the most devastating disasters in Antalya’s recent history. Eight people died and approximately 61,500 hectares of forest burned.
The archive review also compared records of fatal events in different years.
| Year | Event | Confirmed deaths |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | A roof collapse during a storm in central Antalya | 1 |
| 2010 | Heavy rainfall and storms across Antalya | 4 |
| 2011 | Flooding in Serik / Haskızılören | 4 |
| 2013 | Flooding of Sarısu Stream in Konyaaltı | 1 |
| 2016 | Tour boat sinks during a storm | 2 |
| 2018 | Minibus crash linked to floodwaters in Gazipaşa | 1 |
| 2019 | Tornadoes in Kumluca and Finike | 2 |
| 2021 | Wildfires centred on Manavgat | 8 |
| 2024 | Flooding of an underpass in Kepez | 1 |
| 2026 | Tornado tears apart workers’ accommodation containers in Kepez | 4 |
| Total | Ten events examined in the source review | 28 |
The records confirm that 28 people died across the ten events examined. The total includes deaths directly caused by floods and tornadoes, as well as deaths in wildfires and accidents associated with severe weather conditions.
| Year | Event and source | Deaths |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Roof collapse during a storm at a shopping centre | 1 |
| 2010 | Heavy rainfall and storms across Antalya | 4 |
| 2011 | Flooding in Serik / Haskızılören | 4 |
| 2013 | Flooding of Sarısu Stream in Konyaaltı | 1 |
| 2016 | Tour boat sinking during a storm | 2 |
| 2018 | Minibus accident during flooding in Gazipaşa | 1 |
| 2019 | Tornadoes in Kumluca and Finike | 2 |
| 2021 | Wildfires centred on Manavgat | 8 |
| 2024 | Underpass flooding in Kepez | 1 |
| 2026 | Tornado tears apart workers’ accommodation containers in Kepez | 4 |
| Total across the ten events examined | 28 | |
How are these events linked to climate change?
The Mediterranean Basin is among the regions where the effects of global warming are particularly evident. According to assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), temperatures in the region have risen to approximately 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The scientific evidence for increasing extreme heat is strong.
Antalya’s long-term temperature data are consistent with this wider regional change.
Assessing the influence of climate change on the frequency of floods and tornadoes is more complex. The conditions that produce these events depend on local meteorological processes. Changes in reporting over time and urbanisation also matter when interpreting the records.
At the same time, meteorological measurements alone cannot explain the consequences of extreme weather. The death in a flooded underpass in 2024 and the tornado that tore apart workers’ accommodation containers in 2026 illustrate the importance of the conditions in which people are exposed to these hazards.
What Antalya’s records tell us ahead of COP31
Antalya’s records from the past two decades show rising temperatures in the city that will host global climate negotiations. Official disaster records point to an increase in recorded tornadoes and storms. Fatal events document the human consequences of extreme weather conditions.
Holding COP31 in Antalya makes these records relevant to the conference agenda. As countries discuss the impacts of climate change and how to respond to them, the host city provides tangible examples from its own recent history.
The warming observed in Antalya and the human toll of extreme weather events underscore the significance of the climate crisis for Mediterranean cities.